Republic of Ireland
Austria
Republic of Ireland – Austria
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 30, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 46 %
- Most likely score
- 0-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.18 – 1.45
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Austria away from home (46 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.18 goals for Republic of Ireland and 1.45 for Austria. Bookmakers say the same thing: 43 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Republic of Ireland took 10 points and Austria 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 49 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Republic of Ireland | 3.35 | 28 % | +6.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 29 % | -28.4 % |
| 2Austria | 2.15 | 43 % | -2.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Republic of Ireland
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Austria
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Republic of Ireland – Austria?
Our model gives 2 · Austria a 46 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Republic of Ireland win 32 %, draw 23 %, Austria win 46 %.
What is the most likely score for Republic of Ireland – Austria?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.