Malta
Gibraltar
Malta – Gibraltar
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 30, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 55 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.64 – 0.94
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Malta 1-1 Gibraltar. The model predicted a win for Malta (55 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.64 goals for Malta and 0.94 for Gibraltar. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 73 %. Over their last five matches, Malta took 9 points and Gibraltar 8 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Malta, 0 draws, 0 wins for Gibraltar. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Malta | 1.27 | 73 % | -30.6 % |
| XDraw | 5.00 | 19 % | +17.7 % |
| 2Gibraltar | 11.00 | 8 % | +140.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Malta
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Gibraltar
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Malta
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Gibraltar
- Malta1-0Gibraltar
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Malta – Gibraltar?
Final score: Malta 1-1 Gibraltar. The model predicted a win for Malta (55 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Malta – Gibraltar?
Our model gives 1 · Malta a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Malta win 55 %, draw 24 %, Gibraltar win 22 %.