Denmark
Portugal
Denmark – Portugal
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 30, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 41 %
- Most likely score
- 1-09 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.44 – 1.29
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51 %
- Both teams to score
- 56 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Denmark at home (41 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.44 goals for Denmark and 1.29 for Portugal. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 28 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 3.30, the predicted outcome carries +35.2 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Denmark took 8 points and Portugal 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Denmark, 0 draws, 1 win for Portugal. Over 2.5 goals: 51 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Denmark | 3.30 | 28 % | +35.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -17.0 % |
| 2Portugal | 2.00 |
Form and statistics
Denmark
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Portugal
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Denmark
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Portugal
- Portugal5-2Denmark
- Denmark1-0Portugal
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Denmark – Portugal?
Our model gives 1 · Denmark a 41 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Denmark win 41 %, draw 23 %, Portugal win 36 %.
What is the most likely score for Denmark – Portugal?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.