Mexico
Peru
Mexico – Peru
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 29, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 77 %
- Most likely score
- 2-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.33 – 0.68
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Mexico 1-1 Peru. The model predicted a win for Mexico (77 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.33 goals for Mexico and 0.68 for Peru. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 64 %. Over their last five matches, Mexico took 10 points and Peru 4 points. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mexico | 1.46 | 64 % | +11.8 % |
| XDraw | 4.20 | 22 % | -35.2 % |
| 2Peru | 6.50 | 14 % | -47.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Mexico
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Peru
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Mexico – Peru?
Final score: Mexico 1-1 Peru. The model predicted a win for Mexico (77 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Mexico – Peru?
Our model gives 1 · Mexico a 77 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mexico win 77 %, draw 15 %, Peru win 8 %.