United States
Chile
United States – Chile
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 29, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 66 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.11 – 0.93
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards United States at home (66 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.11 goals for United States and 0.93 for Chile. Bookmakers say the same thing: 64 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, United States took 9 points and Chile 6 points. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1United States | 1.47 | 64 % | -3.7 % |
| XDraw | 4.50 | 21 % | -14.9 % |
| 2Chile | 6.50 | 15 % | +1.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
United States
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Chile
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win United States – Chile?
Our model gives 1 · United States a 66 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: United States win 66 %, draw 19 %, Chile win 16 %.
What is the most likely score for United States – Chile?
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.