Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Botafogo-SP
12:30 AM
Sep 30
Ponte Preta
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Botafogo-SP | 1.22 | 76 % | -18.7 % |
| XDraw | 5.50 | 17 % | +13.3 % |
| 2Ponte Preta | 13.00 | 7 % | +66.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Botafogo-SP
Ponte Preta
| Botafogo-SP | Form and statistics | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|
| 1412 | Elo | 1253 |
| 0.80 | Goals scored / match | 0.30 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded / match | 2.40 |
| 12.0 | Shots / match | 10.0 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 10 % |
| 10 | Rest days | 9 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 07:01 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Botafogo-SP a 67 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Botafogo-SP win 67 %, draw 21 %, Ponte Preta win 13 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 50 %, and both teams scoring at 44 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.22 for Botafogo-SP, 5.50 for the draw, 13.00 for Ponte Preta.
Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 12:30 AM (Brasileirão Série B), at Estádio Santa Cruz.
The model leans towards Botafogo-SP at home (67 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.95 goals for Botafogo-SP and 0.72 for Ponte Preta. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 76 %. Over their last five matches, Botafogo-SP took 1 point and Ponte Preta 3 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Botafogo-SP, 1 draw, 1 win for Ponte Preta. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 44 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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