Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Jamaica
02:00 AM
Sep 29
Honduras
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Jamaica | 2.15 | 42 % | -2.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 28 % | -28.9 % |
| 2Honduras | 3.00 | 30 % | -0.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Jamaica
Honduras
| Jamaica | Form and statistics | Honduras |
|---|---|---|
| 1561 | Elo | 1529 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 0.90 |
| 0.90 | Goals conceded / match | 1.00 |
| 10.8 | Shots / match | 12.6 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 2 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 07:01 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Jamaica a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Jamaica win 45 %, draw 22 %, Honduras win 33 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 53 %, and both teams scoring at 57 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.15 for Jamaica, 3.30 for the draw, 3.00 for Honduras.
Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 02:00 AM (Concacaf Nations League), at Independence Park.
The model leans towards Jamaica at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.50 goals for Jamaica and 1.29 for Honduras. Bookmakers say the same thing: 42 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Jamaica took 9 points and Honduras 2 points. In recent meetings: 2 wins for Jamaica, 1 draw, 0 wins for Honduras. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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