América Mineiro
12:30 AM
Sep 29
Juventude
América Mineiro – Juventude
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 07:01 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 0-112 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.02 – 1.28
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40 %
- Both teams to score
- 47 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Juventude away from home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.02 goals for América Mineiro and 1.28 for Juventude. Bookmakers say the same thing: 45 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, América Mineiro took 6 points and Juventude 5 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for América Mineiro, 0 draws, 1 win for Juventude. Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1América Mineiro | 3.60 | 26 % | +2.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.25 | 29 % | -4.4 % |
| 2Juventude | 2.10 | 45 % | -11.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
América Mineiro
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Juventude
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| América Mineiro | Form and statistics | Juventude |
|---|---|---|
| 1354 | Elo | 1524 |
| 0.80 | Goals scored / match | 1.00 |
| 1.80 | Goals conceded / match | 0.70 |
| 16.0 | Shots / match | 12.2 |
| 30 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- América Mineiro
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Juventude
- Juventude3-0América Mineiro
Frequently asked questions
Who will win América Mineiro – Juventude?
Our model gives 2 · Juventude a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: América Mineiro win 28 %, draw 29 %, Juventude win 42 %.
What is the most likely score for América Mineiro – Juventude?
The most likely score is 0-1, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
