Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Suriname
12:00 AM
Sep 29
Martinique
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Suriname | 1.54 | 59 % | -17.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.75 | 24 % | -27.7 % |
| 2Martinique | 5.50 | 17 % | +48.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Suriname
Martinique
| Suriname | Form and statistics | Martinique |
|---|---|---|
| 1540 | Elo | 1449 |
| 1.50 | Goals scored / match | 0.80 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 10.2 | Shots / match | 15.2 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 10 % |
| 2 | Rest days | 2 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 07:01 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Suriname a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Suriname win 54 %, draw 19 %, Martinique win 27 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 58 %, and both teams scoring at 58 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.54 for Suriname, 3.75 for the draw, 5.50 for Martinique.
Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 12:00 AM (Concacaf Nations League), at Franklin Essed Stadion.
The model leans towards Suriname at home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.83 goals for Suriname and 1.17 for Martinique. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 59 %. Over their last five matches, Suriname took 8 points and Martinique 2 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Suriname, 1 draw, 0 wins for Martinique. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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