Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Cuba
11:00 PM
Sep 28
Bonaire
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cuba | 1.13 | 80 % | -33.3 % |
| XDraw | 7.00 | 13 % | +29.8 % |
| 2Bonaire | 13.00 | 7 % | +190.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Cuba
Bonaire
| Cuba | Form and statistics | Bonaire |
|---|---|---|
| 1481 | Elo | 1420 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 0.90 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 2.20 |
| 15.7 | Shots / match | 9.6 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 2 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 07:01 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Cuba a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Cuba win 59 %, draw 19 %, Bonaire win 22 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 61 %, and both teams scoring at 58 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.13 for Cuba, 7.00 for the draw, 13.00 for Bonaire.
Kick-off is scheduled for Monday, September 28, 2026 at 11:00 PM (Concacaf Nations League), at SKNFA Technical Centre.
The model leans towards Cuba at home (59 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.07 goals for Cuba and 1.09 for Bonaire. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 80 %. Over their last five matches, Cuba took 11 points and Bonaire 3 points. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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