Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Guadeloupe
09:00 PM
Sep 28
Barbados
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Guadeloupe | 1.86 | 49 % | +30.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 27 % | -51.0 % |
| 2Barbados | 3.80 | 24 % | -43.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Guadeloupe
Barbados
| Guadeloupe | Form and statistics | Barbados |
|---|---|---|
| 1538 | Elo | 1406 |
| 1.50 | Goals scored / match | 1.40 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 2.30 |
| 14.5 | Shots / match | 13.0 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 2 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 07:01 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Guadeloupe a 70 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Guadeloupe win 70 %, draw 15 %, Barbados win 15 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 72 %, and both teams scoring at 64 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.86 for Guadeloupe, 3.30 for the draw, 3.80 for Barbados.
Kick-off is scheduled for Monday, September 28, 2026 at 09:00 PM (Concacaf Nations League), at Beausejour Stadium.
The model leans towards Guadeloupe at home (70 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 2.55 goals for Guadeloupe and 1.16 for Barbados. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 49 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 1.86, the predicted outcome carries +30.7 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Guadeloupe took 6 points and Barbados 6 points. Over 2.5 goals: 72 %. Both teams to score: 64 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
Nobody has voted yet. Be the first.
