Predictions are closed for this match.
Necaxa
05:10 AM
Sep 28
América
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Necaxa | 4.10 | 23 % | -20.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.85 | 25 % | +0.2 % |
| 2América | 1.80 | 52 % | -1.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Necaxa
América
| Necaxa | Form and statistics | América |
|---|---|---|
| 1447 | Elo | 1643 |
| 1.10 | Goals scored / match | 2.30 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 13.7 | Shots / match | 21.1 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 8 | Rest days | 7 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 07:01 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · América a 55 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Necaxa win 19 %, draw 26 %, América win 55 %.
The most likely score is 1-2, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 57 %, and both teams scoring at 56 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 4.10 for Necaxa, 3.85 for the draw, 1.80 for América.
Kick-off is scheduled for Monday, September 28, 2026 at 05:10 AM (Liga MX), at Estadio Victoria.
The model leans towards América away from home (55 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.08 goals for Necaxa and 1.88 for América. Bookmakers say the same thing: 52 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Necaxa took 2 points and América 10 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Necaxa, 3 draws, 1 win for América. Over 2.5 goals: 57 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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