Spain
4-1
Croatia
Spain – Croatia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 29, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 73 %
- Most likely score
- 2-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.30 – 0.87
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Spain 4-1 Croatia. The model predicted a win for Spain (73 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.30 goals for Spain and 0.87 for Croatia. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 78 %. Over their last five matches, Spain took 15 points and Croatia 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Spain, 1 draw, 0 wins for Croatia. Over 2.5 goals: 61 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Spain | 1.18 | 78 % | -13.6 % |
| XDraw | 7.00 | 13 % | +10.9 % |
| 2Croatia | 11.00 | 8 % | +19.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Spain
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Croatia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Spain
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Croatia
- Spain3-0Croatia
- Croatia0-0Spain
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Spain – Croatia?
Final score: Spain 4-1 Croatia. The model predicted a win for Spain (73 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Spain – Croatia?
Our model gives 1 · Spain a 73 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Spain win 73 %, draw 16 %, Croatia win 11 %.