Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Spain
08:45 PM
Sep 29
Croatia
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Spain | 1.18 | 78 % | -13.5 % |
| XDraw | 6.50 | 14 % | +2.8 % |
| 2Croatia | 11.00 | 8 % | +19.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Spain
Croatia
| Spain | Form and statistics | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| 1811 | Elo | 1629 |
| 2.00 | Goals scored / match | 1.60 |
| 0.40 | Goals conceded / match | 1.70 |
| 16.3 | Shots / match | 12.1 |
| 90 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 3 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 03:05 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Spain a 73 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Spain win 73 %, draw 16 %, Croatia win 11 %.
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 62 %, and both teams scoring at 53 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.18 for Spain, 6.50 for the draw, 11.00 for Croatia.
Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Nations League), at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium.
The model leans towards Spain at home (73 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.31 goals for Spain and 0.87 for Croatia. Bookmakers say the same thing: 78 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Spain took 15 points and Croatia 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Spain, 1 draw, 0 wins for Croatia. Over 2.5 goals: 62 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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