Luxembourg
0-3
Iceland
Luxembourg – Iceland
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 29, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 40 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.24 – 1.20
The short version
Final score: Luxembourg 0-3 Iceland. The model predicted a win for Luxembourg (40 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.24 goals for Luxembourg and 1.20 for Iceland. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 29 %. Over their last five matches, Luxembourg took 12 points and Iceland 3 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Luxembourg, 1 draw, 0 wins for Iceland. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Luxembourg | 3.20 | 29 % | +28.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.25 | 29 % | -21.0 % |
| 2Iceland | 2.20 | 42 % | -21.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Luxembourg
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Iceland
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Luxembourg
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Iceland
- Iceland1-1Luxembourg
- Luxembourg3-1Iceland
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Luxembourg – Iceland?
Final score: Luxembourg 0-3 Iceland. The model predicted a win for Luxembourg (40 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Luxembourg – Iceland?
Our model gives 1 · Luxembourg a 40 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Luxembourg win 40 %, draw 24 %, Iceland win 36 %.