Hoima City Stadium
Uganda
1-0
Libya
Uganda – Libya
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 29, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 45 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.33 – 1.03
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Uganda 1-0 Libya. The model predicted a win for Uganda (45 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.33 goals for Uganda and 1.03 for Libya. Bookmakers say the same thing: 48 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Uganda took 2 points and Libya 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Uganda | 1.90 | 48 % | -14.4 % |
| XDraw | 2.90 | 31 % | -27.3 % |
| 2Libya | 4.30 | 21 % | +28.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Uganda
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Libya
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Uganda – Libya?
Final score: Uganda 1-0 Libya. The model predicted a win for Uganda (45 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Uganda – Libya?
Our model gives 1 · Uganda a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Uganda win 45 %, draw 25 %, Libya win 30 %.