Stade du 24 Septembre
Guinea-Bissau
3-0
Nigeria
Guinea-Bissau – Nigeria
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 29, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 59 %
- Most likely score
- 0-115 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.82 – 1.46
The short version
Final score: Guinea-Bissau 3-0 Nigeria. The model predicted a win for Nigeria (59 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.82 goals for Guinea-Bissau and 1.46 for Nigeria. Bookmakers say the same thing: 63 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Guinea-Bissau took 7 points and Nigeria 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Guinea-Bissau, 0 draws, 1 win for Nigeria. Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 43 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Guinea-Bissau | 7.50 | 12 % | +46.5 % |
| XDraw | 3.65 | 25 % | -20.6 % |
| 2Nigeria | 1.45 | 63 % | -14.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Guinea-Bissau
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Nigeria
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Guinea-Bissau
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Nigeria
- Guinea-Bissau0-1Nigeria
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Guinea-Bissau – Nigeria?
Final score: Guinea-Bissau 3-0 Nigeria. The model predicted a win for Nigeria (59 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Guinea-Bissau – Nigeria?
Our model gives 2 · Nigeria a 59 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Guinea-Bissau win 20 %, draw 22 %, Nigeria win 59 %.