Estádio do Zimpeto
Mozambique
4-1
Sudan
Mozambique – Sudan
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 29, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 47 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.29 – 0.99
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Mozambique 4-1 Sudan. The model predicted a win for Mozambique (47 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.29 goals for Mozambique and 0.99 for Sudan. Bookmakers say the same thing: 48 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Mozambique took 1 point and Sudan 6 points. Over 2.5 goals: 40 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mozambique | 1.90 | 48 % | -11.5 % |
| XDraw | 2.85 | 32 % | -30.5 % |
| 2Sudan | 4.80 | 19 % | +39.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Mozambique
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sudan
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Mozambique – Sudan?
Final score: Mozambique 4-1 Sudan. The model predicted a win for Mozambique (47 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Mozambique – Sudan?
Our model gives 1 · Mozambique a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mozambique win 47 %, draw 24 %, Sudan win 29 %.