Free State Stadium
Lesotho
0-2
Morocco
Lesotho – Morocco
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 29, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 74 %
- Most likely score
- 0-214 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.61 – 2.24
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Lesotho 0-2 Morocco. The model predicted a win for Morocco (74 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-2. It expects 0.61 goals for Lesotho and 2.24 for Morocco. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 90 %. Over their last five matches, Lesotho took 5 points and Morocco 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Lesotho, 0 draws, 2 wins for Morocco. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 41 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lesotho | 29.00 | 3 % | +198.4 % |
| XDraw | 13.00 | 7 % | +104.2 % |
| 2Morocco | 1.01 | 90 % | -25.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Lesotho
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Morocco
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Lesotho
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Morocco
- Morocco7-0Lesotho
- Lesotho0-1Morocco
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Lesotho – Morocco?
Final score: Lesotho 0-2 Morocco. The model predicted a win for Morocco (74 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Lesotho – Morocco?
Our model gives 2 · Morocco a 74 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lesotho win 10 %, draw 16 %, Morocco win 74 %.