Bahir Dar Stadium
Ethiopia
0-1
Senegal
Ethiopia – Senegal
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 29, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 63 %
- Most likely score
- 0-113 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.80 – 1.80
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Ethiopia 0-1 Senegal. The model predicted a win for Senegal (63 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.80 goals for Ethiopia and 1.80 for Senegal. Bookmakers say the same thing: 66 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Ethiopia took 10 points and Senegal 4 points. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Ethiopia | 7.50 | 12 % | +25.4 % |
| XDraw | 4.20 | 22 % | -13.0 % |
| 2Senegal | 1.38 | 66 % | -13.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Ethiopia
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Senegal
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Ethiopia – Senegal?
Final score: Ethiopia 0-1 Senegal. The model predicted a win for Senegal (63 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Ethiopia – Senegal?
Our model gives 2 · Senegal a 63 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Ethiopia win 17 %, draw 21 %, Senegal win 63 %.