Stade Intwari
Burundi
2-2
Algeria
Burundi – Algeria
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 29, 03:06 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 64 %
- Most likely score
- 0-113 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 0.83 – 1.78
The short version
Final score: Burundi 2-2 Algeria. The model predicted a win for Algeria (64 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.83 goals for Burundi and 1.78 for Algeria. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 72 %. Over their last five matches, Burundi took 6 points and Algeria 7 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Burundi, 0 draws, 1 win for Algeria. Over 2.5 goals: 48 %. Both teams to score: 47 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burundi | 10.00 | 9 % | +61.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.80 | 19 % | -6.0 % |
| 2Algeria | 1.28 | 72 % | -17.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Burundi
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Algeria
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Burundi
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Algeria
- Burundi0-4Algeria
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Burundi – Algeria?
Final score: Burundi 2-2 Algeria. The model predicted a win for Algeria (64 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Burundi – Algeria?
Our model gives 2 · Algeria a 64 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Burundi win 16 %, draw 20 %, Algeria win 64 %.