Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Australia
12:00 PM
Sep 29
Brazil
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Australia | 8.50 | 11 % | +183.3 % |
| XDraw | 5.50 | 17 % | +33.8 % |
| 2Brazil | 1.29 | 72 % | -45.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Australia
Brazil
| Australia | Form and statistics | Brazil |
|---|---|---|
| 1636 | Elo | 1664 |
| 1.10 | Goals scored / match | 2.30 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.10 |
| 8.1 | Shots / match | 15.2 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 4 | Rest days | 4 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 03:05 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Brazil a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Australia win 33 %, draw 24 %, Brazil win 42 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 47 %, and both teams scoring at 52 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 8.50 for Australia, 5.50 for the draw, 1.29 for Brazil.
Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM (International friendlies), at Suncorp Stadium.
The model leans towards Brazil away from home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.22 goals for Australia and 1.34 for Brazil. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 72 %. Over their last five matches, Australia took 6 points and Brazil 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Australia, 1 draw, 0 wins for Brazil. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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