Türkiye
1-4
Italy
Türkiye – Italy
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 54 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.83 – 1.10
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Türkiye 1-4 Italy. The model predicted a win for Türkiye (54 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.83 goals for Türkiye and 1.10 for Italy. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 36 %. Over their last five matches, Türkiye took 6 points and Italy 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Türkiye, 1 draw, 0 wins for Italy. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Türkiye | 2.55 | 36 % | +38.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 27 % | -29.9 % |
| 2Italy | 2.55 | 36 % | -36.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Türkiye
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Italy
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Türkiye
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Italy
- Italy0-0Türkiye
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Türkiye – Italy?
Final score: Türkiye 1-4 Italy. The model predicted a win for Türkiye (54 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Türkiye – Italy?
Our model gives 1 · Türkiye a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Türkiye win 54 %, draw 21 %, Italy win 25 %.