Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Türkiye
08:45 PM
Sep 28
Italy
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Türkiye | 2.55 | 36 % | +38.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 27 % | -29.9 % |
| 2Italy | 2.55 | 36 % | -36.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Türkiye
Italy
| Türkiye | Form and statistics | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 1617 | Elo | 1602 |
| 1.50 | Goals scored / match | 1.90 |
| 0.90 | Goals conceded / match | 1.20 |
| 17.8 | Shots / match | 17.4 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 70 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 3 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 03:05 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Türkiye a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Türkiye win 54 %, draw 21 %, Italy win 25 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 56 %, and both teams scoring at 56 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.55 for Türkiye, 3.40 for the draw, 2.55 for Italy.
Kick-off is scheduled for Monday, September 28, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Nations League), at Yüzüncü Yil Atatürk Stadyumu.
The model leans towards Türkiye at home (54 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.83 goals for Türkiye and 1.10 for Italy. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 36 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.55, the predicted outcome carries +38.8 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Türkiye took 6 points and Italy 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Türkiye, 1 draw, 0 wins for Italy. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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