Sweden
3-1
Poland
Sweden – Poland
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 54 %
- Most likely score
- 2-110 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.81 – 1.12
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Sweden 3-1 Poland. The model predicted a win for Sweden (54 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.81 goals for Sweden and 1.12 for Poland. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 45 %. Over their last five matches, Sweden took 7 points and Poland 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Sweden, 0 draws, 0 wins for Poland. Over 2.5 goals: 56 %. Both teams to score: 57 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sweden | 2.05 | 45 % | +11.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 26 % | -24.3 % |
| 2Poland | 3.20 | 29 % | -22.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Sweden
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Poland
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Sweden
- 0 draws
- 0 wins
- Poland
- Sweden3-2Poland
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Sweden – Poland?
Final score: Sweden 3-1 Poland. The model predicted a win for Sweden (54 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Sweden – Poland?
Our model gives 1 · Sweden a 54 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sweden win 54 %, draw 22 %, Poland win 24 %.