Romania
08:45 PM
Sep 28
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Romania – Bosnia-Herzegovina
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.55 – 1.12
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50 %
- Both teams to score
- 53 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Romania at home (49 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.55 goals for Romania and 1.12 for Bosnia-Herzegovina. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 43 %. Over their last five matches, Romania took 4 points and Bosnia-Herzegovina 5 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Romania, 0 draws, 2 wins for Bosnia-Herzegovina. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 53 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Romania | 2.15 | 43 % | +6.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.25 | 28 % | -22.5 % |
| 2Bosnia-Herzegovina | 3.20 | 29 % | -14.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Romania
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Bosnia-Herzegovina
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Romania | Form and statistics | Bosnia-Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|
| 1538 | Elo | 1487 |
| 1.70 | Goals scored / match | 0.90 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded / match | 1.20 |
| 10.2 | Shots / match | 9.8 |
| 40 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Romania
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Bosnia-Herzegovina
- Bosnia-Herzegovina3-1Romania
- Romania0-1Bosnia-Herzegovina
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Romania – Bosnia-Herzegovina?
Our model gives 1 · Romania a 49 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Romania win 49 %, draw 24 %, Bosnia-Herzegovina win 27 %.
What is the most likely score for Romania – Bosnia-Herzegovina?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
