Northern Ireland
08:45 PM
Sep 28
Hungary
Northern Ireland – Hungary
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.37 – 1.15
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46 %
- Both teams to score
- 51 %
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
The short version
The model leans towards Northern Ireland at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.37 goals for Northern Ireland and 1.15 for Hungary. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 35 %. Over their last five matches, Northern Ireland took 7 points and Hungary 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Northern Ireland | 2.65 | 35 % | +10.4 % |
| XDraw | 2.95 | 31 % | -28.3 % |
| 2Hungary | 2.75 | 34 % | -6.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Form and statistics
Northern Ireland
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Hungary
- Last 5 matches
- Away
| Northern Ireland | Form and statistics | Hungary |
|---|---|---|
| 1517 | Elo | 1508 |
| 0.80 | Goals scored / match | 1.50 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 1.10 |
| 8.7 | Shots / match | 15.0 |
| 40 % | Win rate |
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Northern Ireland – Hungary?
Our model gives 1 · Northern Ireland a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Northern Ireland win 42 %, draw 24 %, Hungary win 34 %.
What is the most likely score for Northern Ireland – Hungary?
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
