Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Belgium
08:45 PM
Sep 28
France
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Belgium | 3.45 | 27 % | +52.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.90 | 24 % | -16.1 % |
| 2France | 1.86 | 50 % | -36.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Belgium
France
| Belgium | Form and statistics | France |
|---|---|---|
| 1694 | Elo | 1726 |
| 2.40 | Goals scored / match | 2.40 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded / match | 1.10 |
| 17.1 | Shots / match | 17.8 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 80 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 3 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 03:05 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Belgium a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Belgium win 44 %, draw 22 %, France win 34 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 58 %, and both teams scoring at 60 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 3.45 for Belgium, 3.90 for the draw, 1.86 for France.
Kick-off is scheduled for Monday, September 28, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Nations League), at King Baudouin Stadium.
The model leans towards Belgium at home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.58 goals for Belgium and 1.42 for France. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 27 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 3.45, the predicted outcome carries +52.8 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, Belgium took 12 points and France 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Belgium, 0 draws, 3 wins for France. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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