Belgium
0-1
France
Belgium – France
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 44 %
- Most likely score
- 2-19 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.58 – 1.42
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Belgium 0-1 France. The model predicted a win for Belgium (44 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.58 goals for Belgium and 1.42 for France. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 27 %. Over their last five matches, Belgium took 12 points and France 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Belgium, 0 draws, 3 wins for France. Over 2.5 goals: 58 %. Both teams to score: 60 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Belgium | 3.45 | 27 % | +52.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.90 | 24 % | -16.1 % |
| 2France | 1.86 | 50 % | -36.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Belgium
- Last 5 matches
- At home
France
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Belgium
- 0 draws
- 3 wins
- France
- Belgium1-2France
- France2-0Belgium
- France1-0Belgium
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Belgium – France?
Final score: Belgium 0-1 France. The model predicted a win for Belgium (44 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Belgium – France?
Our model gives 1 · Belgium a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Belgium win 44 %, draw 22 %, France win 34 %.