Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Leganés
08:30 PM
Sep 28
Castellón
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Leganés | 3.10 | 31 % | -31.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -12.9 % |
| 2Castellón | 2.30 | 41 % | +19.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Leganés
Castellón
| Leganés | Form and statistics | Castellón |
|---|---|---|
| 1479 | Elo | 1616 |
| 0.80 | Goals scored / match | 1.80 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded / match | 0.70 |
| 10.4 | Shots / match | 14.9 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 70 % |
| 7 | Rest days | 9 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 03:05 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Castellón a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Leganés win 22 %, draw 26 %, Castellón win 52 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 47 %, and both teams scoring at 50 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 3.10 for Leganés, 3.35 for the draw, 2.30 for Castellón.
Kick-off is scheduled for Monday, September 28, 2026 at 08:30 PM (LaLiga 2), at Estadio Municipal de Butarque.
The model leans towards Castellón away from home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.98 goals for Leganés and 1.56 for Castellón. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 41 %. Over their last five matches, Leganés took 10 points and Castellón 13 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Leganés, 0 draws, 2 wins for Castellón. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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