Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Zimbabwe
06:00 PM
Sep 28
Congo DR
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Zimbabwe | 4.50 | 20 % | +10.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.00 | 30 % | -29.5 % |
| 2Congo DR | 1.83 | 50 % | -5.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Zimbabwe
Congo DR
| Zimbabwe | Form and statistics | Congo DR |
|---|---|---|
| 1474 | Elo | 1636 |
| 1.20 | Goals scored / match | 1.30 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 0.80 |
| 6.5 | Shots / match | 12.1 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 4 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 03:05 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Congo DR a 52 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Zimbabwe win 25 %, draw 24 %, Congo DR win 52 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 41 %, and both teams scoring at 46 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 4.50 for Zimbabwe, 3.00 for the draw, 1.83 for Congo DR.
Kick-off is scheduled for Monday, September 28, 2026 at 06:00 PM (Africa Cup of Nations qualifying), at Harare National Sports Stadium.
The model leans towards Congo DR away from home (52 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.94 goals for Zimbabwe and 1.39 for Congo DR. Bookmakers say the same thing: 50 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Zimbabwe took 9 points and Congo DR 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 41 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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