Stade Omnisport Ahmadou Ahidjo
Equatorial Guinea
1-0
Sierra Leone
Equatorial Guinea – Sierra Leone
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 03:05 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 50 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.42 – 0.92
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Equatorial Guinea 1-0 Sierra Leone. The model predicted a win for Equatorial Guinea (50 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.42 goals for Equatorial Guinea and 0.92 for Sierra Leone. Bookmakers say the same thing: 48 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Equatorial Guinea took 3 points and Sierra Leone 4 points. Over 2.5 goals: 41 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Equatorial Guinea | 1.90 | 48 % | -4.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.05 | 30 % | -27.2 % |
| 2Sierra Leone | 4.00 | 23 % | +3.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Equatorial Guinea
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Sierra Leone
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Equatorial Guinea – Sierra Leone?
Final score: Equatorial Guinea 1-0 Sierra Leone. The model predicted a win for Equatorial Guinea (50 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Equatorial Guinea – Sierra Leone?
Our model gives 1 · Equatorial Guinea a 50 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Equatorial Guinea win 50 %, draw 24 %, Sierra Leone win 26 %.