Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Armenia
06:00 PM
Sep 28
Montenegro
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Armenia | 2.85 | 33 % | +18.9 % |
| XDraw | 3.05 | 30 % | -27.1 % |
| 2Montenegro | 2.50 | 37 % | -14.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Armenia
Montenegro
| Armenia | Form and statistics | Montenegro |
|---|---|---|
| 1382 | Elo | 1451 |
| 0.80 | Goals scored / match | 1.50 |
| 2.30 | Goals conceded / match | 1.90 |
| 6.4 | Shots / match | 8.3 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 2 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 03:05 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Armenia a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Armenia win 42 %, draw 24 %, Montenegro win 34 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 50 %, and both teams scoring at 54 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.85 for Armenia, 3.05 for the draw, 2.50 for Montenegro.
Kick-off is scheduled for Monday, September 28, 2026 at 06:00 PM (Nations League), at Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium.
The model leans towards Armenia at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.43 goals for Armenia and 1.24 for Montenegro. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 33 %. Over their last five matches, Armenia took 5 points and Montenegro 10 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Armenia, 1 draw, 0 wins for Montenegro. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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