Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
South Korea
01:00 PM
Sep 28
Uruguay
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1South Korea | 2.40 | 39 % | +26.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.15 | 30 % | -25.3 % |
| 2Uruguay | 3.10 | 31 % | -26.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
South Korea
Uruguay
| South Korea | Form and statistics | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 1650 | Elo | 1577 |
| 1.40 | Goals scored / match | 0.90 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 11.9 | Shots / match | 10.5 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 4 | Rest days | 4 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 28, 03:05 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · South Korea a 53 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: South Korea win 53 %, draw 24 %, Uruguay win 24 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 47 %, and both teams scoring at 50 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.40 for South Korea, 3.15 for the draw, 3.10 for Uruguay.
Kick-off is scheduled for Monday, September 28, 2026 at 01:00 PM (International friendlies), at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
The model leans towards South Korea at home (53 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.57 goals for South Korea and 0.99 for Uruguay. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 39 %. This is the card's value bet: at odds of 2.40, the predicted outcome carries +26.4 % of expected return by the model's reckoning. Over their last five matches, South Korea took 9 points and Uruguay 3 points. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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