Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Bolivia
10:30 PM
Sep 27
Paraguay
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bolivia | 6.50 | 14 % | +53.4 % |
| XDraw | 4.70 | 20 % | +19.4 % |
| 2Paraguay | 1.44 | 65 % | -26.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Bolivia
Paraguay
| Bolivia | Form and statistics | Paraguay |
|---|---|---|
| 1410 | Elo | 1557 |
| 0.50 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.10 |
| 4.9 | Shots / match | 7.9 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 40 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 27, 02:25 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Paraguay a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Bolivia win 24 %, draw 25 %, Paraguay win 51 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 41 %, and both teams scoring at 46 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 6.50 for Bolivia, 4.70 for the draw, 1.44 for Paraguay.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 10:30 PM (International friendlies), at Audi Field.
The model leans towards Paraguay away from home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 0.95 goals for Bolivia and 1.38 for Paraguay. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 65 %. Over their last five matches, Bolivia took 4 points and Paraguay 5 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Bolivia, 1 draw, 1 win for Paraguay. Over 2.5 goals: 41 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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