Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Norway
08:45 PM
Sep 27
Portugal
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Norway | 2.40 | 39 % | +9.1 % |
| XDraw | 3.60 | 26 % | -21.8 % |
| 2Portugal | 2.60 | 36 % | -14.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Norway
Portugal
| Norway | Form and statistics | Portugal |
|---|---|---|
| 1690 | Elo | 1691 |
| 2.00 | Goals scored / match | 1.50 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 0.50 |
| 11.5 | Shots / match | 13.7 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 3 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 27, 02:25 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Norway a 45 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Norway win 45 %, draw 22 %, Portugal win 33 %.
The most likely score is 2-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 55 %, and both teams scoring at 58 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.40 for Norway, 3.60 for the draw, 2.60 for Portugal.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Nations League), at Ullevaal Stadion.
The model leans towards Norway at home (45 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-1. It expects 1.59 goals for Norway and 1.31 for Portugal. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 39 %. Over their last five matches, Norway took 9 points and Portugal 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 55 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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