Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Malta
06:30 PM
Sep 27
Liechtenstein
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Malta | 1.28 | 74 % | -13.4 % |
| XDraw | 5.25 | 18 % | -1.1 % |
| 2Liechtenstein | 11.00 | 9 % | +48.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Malta
Liechtenstein
| Malta | Form and statistics | Liechtenstein |
|---|---|---|
| 1381 | Elo | 1239 |
| 1.20 | Goals scored / match | 0.30 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded / match | 2.90 |
| 5.6 | Shots / match | 1.9 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 10 % |
| 3 | Rest days | 2 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 27, 02:25 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Malta a 68 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Malta win 68 %, draw 19 %, Liechtenstein win 13 %.
The most likely score is 2-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 52 %, and both teams scoring at 48 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.28 for Malta, 5.25 for the draw, 11.00 for Liechtenstein.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 06:30 PM (International friendlies), at Ta' Qali National Stadium.
The model leans towards Malta at home (68 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 1.98 goals for Malta and 0.80 for Liechtenstein. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 74 %. Over their last five matches, Malta took 6 points and Liechtenstein 3 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Malta, 0 draws, 0 wins for Liechtenstein. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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