Burgos
1-0
Eldense
Burgos – Eldense
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 27, 08:10 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 56 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.61 – 0.92
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Burgos 1-0 Eldense. The model predicted a win for Burgos (56 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.61 goals for Burgos and 0.92 for Eldense. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 47 %. Over their last five matches, Burgos took 8 points and Eldense 5 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Burgos, 1 draw, 2 wins for Eldense. Over 2.5 goals: 46 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Burgos | 2.00 | 47 % | +11.7 % |
| XDraw | 3.25 | 29 % | -19.1 % |
| 2Eldense | 4.00 | 24 % | -22.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Burgos
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Eldense
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Burgos
- 1 draw
- 2 wins
- Eldense
- Eldense0-0Burgos
- Burgos1-0Eldense
- Burgos1-2Eldense
- Eldense2-0Burgos
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Burgos – Eldense?
Final score: Burgos 1-0 Eldense. The model predicted a win for Burgos (56 %): correct prediction.
Who will win Burgos – Eldense?
Our model gives 1 · Burgos a 56 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Burgos win 56 %, draw 25 %, Eldense win 19 %.