Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Denmark
06:00 PM
Sep 27
Wales
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Denmark | 1.42 | 65 % | -4.7 % |
| XDraw | 4.40 | 21 % | -23.1 % |
| 2Wales | 6.50 | 14 % | +0.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Denmark
Wales
| Denmark | Form and statistics | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 1614 | Elo | 1522 |
| 2.60 | Goals scored / match | 1.40 |
| 1.30 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 18.1 | Shots / match | 13.5 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 2 | Rest days | 2 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 27, 02:25 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Denmark a 67 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Denmark win 67 %, draw 17 %, Wales win 15 %.
The most likely score is 2-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 60 %, and both teams scoring at 54 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.42 for Denmark, 4.40 for the draw, 6.50 for Wales.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 06:00 PM (Nations League), at Parken Stadium.
The model leans towards Denmark at home (67 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.13 goals for Denmark and 0.95 for Wales. Bookmakers say the same thing: 65 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Denmark took 8 points and Wales 3 points. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 54 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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