Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Mallorca
04:15 PM
Sep 27
Almería
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mallorca | 2.10 | 45 % | -1.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 29 % | -4.6 % |
| 2Almería | 3.60 | 26 % | -12.3 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Mallorca
Almería
| Mallorca | Form and statistics | Almería |
|---|---|---|
| 1598 | Elo | 1589 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.50 |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded / match | 0.90 |
| 12.9 | Shots / match | 11.0 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 8 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 27, 02:25 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Mallorca a 47 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mallorca win 47 %, draw 29 %, Almería win 24 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 47 %, and both teams scoring at 51 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.10 for Mallorca, 3.30 for the draw, 3.60 for Almería.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 04:15 PM (LaLiga 2), at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
The model leans towards Mallorca at home (47 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.52 goals for Mallorca and 1.03 for Almería. Bookmakers say the same thing: 45 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Mallorca took 10 points and Almería 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Mallorca, 2 draws, 1 win for Almería. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
Nobody has voted yet. Be the first.
