Lithuania
1-1
Azerbaijan
Lithuania – Azerbaijan
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 27, 08:10 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 51 %
- Most likely score
- 1-013 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.55 – 0.94
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Lithuania 1-1 Azerbaijan. The model predicted a win for Lithuania (51 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.55 goals for Lithuania and 0.94 for Azerbaijan. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 41 %. Over their last five matches, Lithuania took 7 points and Azerbaijan 10 points. Over 2.5 goals: 45 %. Both teams to score: 48 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lithuania | 2.25 | 41 % | +14.9 % |
| XDraw | 2.95 | 31 % | -33.5 % |
| 2Azerbaijan | 3.35 | 28 % | -11.6 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Lithuania
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Azerbaijan
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Lithuania – Azerbaijan?
Final score: Lithuania 1-1 Azerbaijan. The model predicted a win for Lithuania (51 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Lithuania – Azerbaijan?
Our model gives 1 · Lithuania a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Lithuania win 51 %, draw 23 %, Azerbaijan win 26 %.