Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Real Valladolid
02:00 PM
Sep 27
Córdoba
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Real Valladolid | 2.35 | 40 % | -22.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -0.3 % |
| 2Córdoba | 2.95 | 32 % | +11.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Real Valladolid
Córdoba
| Real Valladolid | Form and statistics | Córdoba |
|---|---|---|
| 1399 | Elo | 1471 |
| 0.60 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 1.80 |
| 11.0 | Shots / match | 18.5 |
| 20 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 6 | Rest days | 8 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 27, 02:25 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Córdoba a 38 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Real Valladolid win 33 %, draw 29 %, Córdoba win 38 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 44 %, and both teams scoring at 50 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.35 for Real Valladolid, 3.40 for the draw, 2.95 for Córdoba.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 02:00 PM (LaLiga 2), at Estadio José Zorrilla.
The model leans towards Córdoba away from home (38 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.13 goals for Real Valladolid and 1.30 for Córdoba. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 32 %. Over their last five matches, Real Valladolid took 5 points and Córdoba 6 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Real Valladolid, 1 draw, 1 win for Córdoba. Over 2.5 goals: 44 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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