China
0-3
New Zealand
China – New Zealand
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 27, 08:10 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 57 %
- Most likely score
- 1-012 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.70 – 0.96
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: China 0-3 New Zealand. The model predicted a win for China (57 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.70 goals for China and 0.96 for New Zealand. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 27 %. Over their last five matches, China took 10 points and New Zealand 2 points. Over 2.5 goals: 50 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1China | 3.50 | 27 % | +98.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -21.4 % |
| 2New Zealand | 2.10 | 45 % | -58.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
China
- Last 5 matches
- At home
New Zealand
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of China – New Zealand?
Final score: China 0-3 New Zealand. The model predicted a win for China (57 %): missed prediction.
Who will win China – New Zealand?
Our model gives 1 · China a 57 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: China win 57 %, draw 23 %, New Zealand win 20 %.