Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Sint Maarten
04:00 AM
Sep 27
Belize
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Sint Maarten | 3.20 | 29 % | +14.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.50 | 27 % | -30.2 % |
| 2Belize | 2.10 | 44 % | -6.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Sint Maarten
Belize
| Sint Maarten | Form and statistics | Belize |
|---|---|---|
| 1482 | Elo | 1511 |
| 1.30 | Goals scored / match | 1.80 |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 12.2 | Shots / match | 12.8 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 50 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 27, 02:25 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Belize a 44 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Sint Maarten win 36 %, draw 20 %, Belize win 44 %.
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 60 %, and both teams scoring at 62 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 3.20 for Sint Maarten, 3.50 for the draw, 2.10 for Belize.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 04:00 AM (Concacaf Nations League), at FFB Stadium.
The model leans towards Belize away from home (44 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.51 goals for Sint Maarten and 1.58 for Belize. Bookmakers say the same thing: 44 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Sint Maarten took 11 points and Belize 6 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Sint Maarten, 0 draws, 0 wins for Belize. Over 2.5 goals: 60 %. Both teams to score: 62 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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