Predictions are closed for this match.
Mexico
03:00 AM
Sep 27
Colombia
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mexico | 2.70 | 35 % | +13.3 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -13.5 % |
| 2Colombia | 2.55 | 37 % | -17.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Mexico
Colombia
| Mexico | Form and statistics | Colombia |
|---|---|---|
| 1671 | Elo | 1681 |
| 1.90 | Goals scored / match | 1.50 |
| 0.50 | Goals conceded / match | 0.70 |
| 13.3 | Shots / match | 16.5 |
| 70 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 27, 02:25 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Mexico a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mexico win 42 %, draw 26 %, Colombia win 32 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 10 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 47 %, and both teams scoring at 52 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.70 for Mexico, 3.35 for the draw, 2.55 for Colombia.
Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday, September 27, 2026 at 03:00 AM (International friendlies), at M&T Bank Stadium.
The model leans towards Mexico at home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.38 goals for Mexico and 1.17 for Colombia. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 35 %. Over their last five matches, Mexico took 12 points and Colombia 11 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Mexico, 0 draws, 2 wins for Colombia. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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