Mexico
1-1
Colombia
Mexico – Colombia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 27, 08:10 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 1-010 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.38 – 1.17
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Mexico 1-1 Colombia. The model predicted a win for Mexico (42 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.38 goals for Mexico and 1.17 for Colombia. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 36 %. Over their last five matches, Mexico took 12 points and Colombia 11 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Mexico, 0 draws, 2 wins for Colombia. Over 2.5 goals: 47 %. Both teams to score: 52 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Mexico | 2.65 | 36 % | +11.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.40 | 28 % | -12.2 % |
| 2Colombia | 2.60 | 36 % | -16.2 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Mexico
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Colombia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- Mexico
- 0 draws
- 2 wins
- Colombia
- Mexico0-4Colombia
- Mexico2-3Colombia
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Mexico – Colombia?
Final score: Mexico 1-1 Colombia. The model predicted a win for Mexico (42 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Mexico – Colombia?
Our model gives 1 · Mexico a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Mexico win 42 %, draw 26 %, Colombia win 32 %.