Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
United States
10:30 PM
Sep 26
Peru
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1United States | 1.54 | 61 % | +0.9 % |
| XDraw | 4.20 | 22 % | -16.8 % |
| 2Peru | 5.75 | 16 % | -15.4 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
United States
Peru
| United States | Form and statistics | Peru |
|---|---|---|
| 1580 | Elo | 1461 |
| 2.20 | Goals scored / match | 1.00 |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded / match | 1.70 |
| 12.6 | Shots / match | 8.8 |
| 50 % | Win rate | 20 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 26, 07:49 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · United States a 65 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: United States win 65 %, draw 20 %, Peru win 15 %.
The most likely score is 2-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 54 %, and both teams scoring at 50 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.54 for United States, 4.20 for the draw, 5.75 for Peru.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 10:30 PM (International friendlies), at Inter&Co Stadium.
The model leans towards United States at home (65 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 1.99 goals for United States and 0.86 for Peru. Bookmakers say the same thing: 61 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, United States took 9 points and Peru 7 points. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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