Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Slovakia
08:45 PM
Sep 26
Moldova
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Slovakia | 1.15 | 80 % | -20.1 % |
| XDraw | 7.00 | 13 % | +29.4 % |
| 2Moldova | 14.00 | 7 % | +68.7 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Slovakia
Moldova
| Slovakia | Form and statistics | Moldova |
|---|---|---|
| 1543 | Elo | 1374 |
| 1.50 | Goals scored / match | 0.90 |
| 1.50 | Goals conceded / match | 3.20 |
| 7.7 | Shots / match | 5.3 |
| 60 % | Win rate | 0 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 26, 07:49 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Slovakia a 69 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Slovakia win 69 %, draw 18 %, Moldova win 12 %.
The most likely score is 2-0, at 12 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 59 %, and both teams scoring at 51 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.15 for Slovakia, 7.00 for the draw, 14.00 for Moldova.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Nations League), at Futbal Tatran Arena.
The model leans towards Slovakia at home (69 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 2-0. It expects 2.22 goals for Slovakia and 0.83 for Moldova. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 80 %. Over their last five matches, Slovakia took 7 points and Moldova 2 points. Over 2.5 goals: 59 %. Both teams to score: 51 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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