England
2-3
Spain
England – Spain
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 26, 07:49 AM.
- Predicted result
- 2Away win
- Confidence
- 42 %
- Most likely score
- 1-29 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.37 – 1.47
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: England 2-3 Spain. The model predicted a win for Spain (42 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.37 goals for England and 1.47 for Spain. Bookmakers say the same thing: 44 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, England took 12 points and Spain 15 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for England, 0 draws, 1 win for Spain. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1England | 3.20 | 29 % | +11.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 27 % | -20.5 % |
| 2Spain | 2.10 | 44 % | -12.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
England
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Spain
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 0 wins
- England
- 0 draws
- 1 win
- Spain
- Spain2-1England
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of England – Spain?
Final score: England 2-3 Spain. The model predicted a win for Spain (42 %): correct prediction.
Who will win England – Spain?
Our model gives 2 · Spain a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: England win 35 %, draw 24 %, Spain win 42 %.