Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
England
08:45 PM
Sep 26
Spain
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1England | 3.20 | 29 % | +11.2 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 27 % | -20.5 % |
| 2Spain | 2.10 | 44 % | -12.8 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
England
Spain
| England | Form and statistics | Spain |
|---|---|---|
| 1740 | Elo | 1801 |
| 2.40 | Goals scored / match | 1.80 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 0.30 |
| 16.9 | Shots / match | 16.1 |
| 80 % | Win rate | 80 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 26, 07:49 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Spain a 42 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: England win 35 %, draw 24 %, Spain win 42 %.
The most likely score is 1-2, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 54 %, and both teams scoring at 58 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 3.20 for England, 3.35 for the draw, 2.10 for Spain.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Nations League), at Wembley Stadium.
The model leans towards Spain away from home (42 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-2. It expects 1.37 goals for England and 1.47 for Spain. Bookmakers say the same thing: 44 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, England took 12 points and Spain 15 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for England, 0 draws, 1 win for Spain. Over 2.5 goals: 54 %. Both teams to score: 58 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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