Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Czechia
08:45 PM
Sep 26
Croatia
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Czechia | 3.30 | 28 % | +9.4 % |
| XDraw | 3.35 | 28 % | -18.8 % |
| 2Croatia | 2.10 | 44 % | -10.5 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Czechia
Croatia
| Czechia | Form and statistics | Croatia |
|---|---|---|
| 1569 | Elo | 1619 |
| 1.90 | Goals scored / match | 1.70 |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded / match | 1.70 |
| 9.4 | Shots / match | 12.5 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 60 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 26, 07:49 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 2 · Croatia a 43 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Czechia win 33 %, draw 24 %, Croatia win 43 %.
The most likely score is 0-1, at 9 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 52 %, and both teams scoring at 56 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 3.30 for Czechia, 3.35 for the draw, 2.10 for Croatia.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 08:45 PM (Nations League), at Fortuna Arena.
The model leans towards Croatia away from home (43 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 0-1. It expects 1.28 goals for Czechia and 1.47 for Croatia. Bookmakers say the same thing: 44 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Czechia took 7 points and Croatia 9 points. In recent meetings: 0 wins for Czechia, 1 draw, 1 win for Croatia. Over 2.5 goals: 52 %. Both teams to score: 56 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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