Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Tenerife
06:30 PM
Sep 26
Cádiz
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tenerife | 1.86 | 51 % | -6.0 % |
| XDraw | 3.30 | 29 % | -3.5 % |
| 2Cádiz | 4.50 | 21 % | -9.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Tenerife
Cádiz
| Tenerife | Form and statistics | Cádiz |
|---|---|---|
| 1473 | Elo | 1382 |
| 1.10 | Goals scored / match | 1.10 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded / match | 1.50 |
| 8.5 | Shots / match | 9.6 |
| 40 % | Win rate | 10 % |
| 7 | Rest days | 6 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 26, 07:49 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Tenerife a 51 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Tenerife win 51 %, draw 29 %, Cádiz win 20 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 13 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 43 %, and both teams scoring at 46 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.86 for Tenerife, 3.30 for the draw, 4.50 for Cádiz.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 06:30 PM (LaLiga 2), at Estadio Heliodoro Rodríguez López.
The model leans towards Tenerife at home (51 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.52 goals for Tenerife and 0.89 for Cádiz. Bookmakers say the same thing: 51 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Tenerife took 7 points and Cádiz 2 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Tenerife, 1 draw, 0 wins for Cádiz. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 46 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
Nobody has voted yet. Be the first.
