Iceland
1-1
Estonia
Iceland – Estonia
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 26, 07:49 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 62 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.94 – 0.87
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: Iceland 1-1 Estonia. The model predicted a win for Iceland (62 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.94 goals for Iceland and 0.87 for Estonia. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 73 %. Over their last five matches, Iceland took 2 points and Estonia 5 points. Over 2.5 goals: 53 %. Both teams to score: 50 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Iceland | 1.27 | 73 % | -21.0 % |
| XDraw | 5.25 | 18 % | +8.3 % |
| 2Estonia | 9.50 | 10 % | +63.0 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Iceland
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Estonia
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Iceland – Estonia?
Final score: Iceland 1-1 Estonia. The model predicted a win for Iceland (62 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Iceland – Estonia?
Our model gives 1 · Iceland a 62 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Iceland win 62 %, draw 21 %, Estonia win 17 %.