Bulgaria
1-2
Luxembourg
Bulgaria – Luxembourg
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 26, 07:49 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 39 %
- Most likely score
- 1-011 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.22 – 1.18
The short version
Final score: Bulgaria 1-2 Luxembourg. The model predicted a win for Bulgaria (39 %): missed prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.22 goals for Bulgaria and 1.18 for Luxembourg. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Bulgaria took 10 points and Luxembourg 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Bulgaria, 1 draw, 0 wins for Luxembourg. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bulgaria | 2.30 | 40 % | -10.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.05 | 30 % | -17.9 % |
| 2Luxembourg | 3.15 | 29 % | +8.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
Bulgaria
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Luxembourg
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
- 1 win
- Bulgaria
- 1 draw
- 0 wins
- Luxembourg
- Luxembourg0-1Bulgaria
- Bulgaria0-0Luxembourg
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of Bulgaria – Luxembourg?
Final score: Bulgaria 1-2 Luxembourg. The model predicted a win for Bulgaria (39 %): missed prediction.
Who will win Bulgaria – Luxembourg?
Our model gives 1 · Bulgaria a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Bulgaria win 39 %, draw 27 %, Luxembourg win 34 %.