Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
Bulgaria
06:00 PM
Sep 26
Luxembourg
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bulgaria | 2.30 | 40 % | -10.8 % |
| XDraw | 3.05 | 30 % | -17.9 % |
| 2Luxembourg | 3.15 | 29 % | +8.1 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
Bulgaria
Luxembourg
| Bulgaria | Form and statistics | Luxembourg |
|---|---|---|
| 1444 | Elo | 1430 |
| 1.60 | Goals scored / match | 0.70 |
| 2.40 | Goals conceded / match | 1.40 |
| 2.7 | Shots / match | 7.4 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 26, 07:49 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · Bulgaria a 39 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: Bulgaria win 39 %, draw 27 %, Luxembourg win 34 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 11 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 43 %, and both teams scoring at 49 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 2.30 for Bulgaria, 3.05 for the draw, 3.15 for Luxembourg.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (Nations League), at Hristo Botev Stadium, Plovdiv.
The model leans towards Bulgaria at home (39 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.22 goals for Bulgaria and 1.18 for Luxembourg. Bookmakers say the same thing: 40 % on the same outcome. Over their last five matches, Bulgaria took 10 points and Luxembourg 9 points. In recent meetings: 1 win for Bulgaria, 1 draw, 0 wins for Luxembourg. Over 2.5 goals: 43 %. Both teams to score: 49 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
Nobody has voted yet. Be the first.
