Orlando Stadium
South Africa
2-1
Guinea
South Africa – Guinea
What the model says
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 26, 07:49 AM.
- Predicted result
- 1Home win
- Confidence
- 58 %
- Most likely score
- 1-014 % chance
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.54 – 0.83
- Over 2.5 goals
The short version
Final score: South Africa 2-1 Guinea. The model predicted a win for South Africa (58 %): correct prediction. The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.54 goals for South Africa and 0.83 for Guinea. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 50 %. Over their last five matches, South Africa took 7 points and Guinea 5 points. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
What the market says
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1South Africa | 1.83 | 50 % | +5.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.05 | 30 % | -28.7 % |
| 2Guinea | 4.60 | 20 % | -12.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the model gives this outcome a better chance than the odds do. A gap is not betting advice.
Form and statistics
South Africa
- Last 5 matches
- At home
Guinea
- Last 5 matches
Head-to-head
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Frequently asked questions
What was the result of South Africa – Guinea?
Final score: South Africa 2-1 Guinea. The model predicted a win for South Africa (58 %): correct prediction.
Who will win South Africa – Guinea?
Our model gives 1 · South Africa a 58 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: South Africa win 58 %, draw 23 %, Guinea win 19 %.