Who wins? Editable until kick-off.
South Africa
03:00 PM
Sep 26
Guinea
Average of one bookmaker, margin removed.
| Predicted result | Odds | Implied probability | EdgeModel edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1South Africa | 1.83 | 50 % | +5.6 % |
| XDraw | 3.05 | 30 % | -28.7 % |
| 2Guinea | 4.60 | 20 % | -12.9 % |
Model probability × odds − 1. Positive: the odds pay more than the estimated risk. Only the edge on the predicted outcome counts as a value bet.
South Africa
Guinea
| South Africa | Form and statistics | Guinea |
|---|---|---|
| 1586 | Elo | 1521 |
| 0.90 | Goals scored / match | 1.20 |
| 1.10 | Goals conceded / match | 0.90 |
| 11.3 | Shots / match | 5.2 |
| 30 % | Win rate | 30 % |
| 30 | Rest days | 30 |
No recent meeting between these two teams.
Probabilities computed by model v2-20260920-1817, Sep 26, 07:49 AM.
The score shown is the most likely one among those matching the predicted result, not the rounded xG: with 1.83 – 1.24 expected goals and a home win predicted, that is 1-0. 1-1, the single most frequent score overall, only appears when a draw is predicted.
Our model gives 1 · South Africa a 58 % probability. The three outcomes split as follows: South Africa win 58 %, draw 23 %, Guinea win 19 %.
The most likely score is 1-0, at 14 %. It is the most frequent score among those that produce the result the model predicts.
The model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals at 42 %, and both teams scoring at 45 %.
Bookmaker average with the margin removed: 1.83 for South Africa, 3.05 for the draw, 4.60 for Guinea.
Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday, September 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (Africa Cup of Nations qualifying), at Orlando Stadium.
The model leans towards South Africa at home (58 %). The most likely score among those producing that result is 1-0. It expects 1.54 goals for South Africa and 0.83 for Guinea. Bookmakers disagree: they give that outcome 50 %. Over their last five matches, South Africa took 7 points and Guinea 5 points. Over 2.5 goals: 42 %. Both teams to score: 45 %.
The three 1/X/2 breakdowns side by side.
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